Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.
The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.
Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.
Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.
Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.
Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.
Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.
This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.
Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.
Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.
Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.
After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.
