Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
