How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned negotiations on the almost four-year war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Rhonda Cooley
Rhonda Cooley

Lena is a seasoned poker strategist with over a decade of experience in competitive online play and coaching.